It’s that time of year when everything matters, and nothing matters.
Coming in hot? Just know that can change if a pair of superstar sluggers suddenly can’t adapt to the way they’re pitched in a short series. Staggering punch-drunk into the field? Hey, all it takes is one hanging breaking ball and a three-run jack to correct all that was wrong in September.
Five days off with a bye into the Division Series? Staying sharp by surviving the crucible of a three-game wild-card series? Don’t listen to the fools who claim either scenario is preferable.
Yet one thing is true: The best teams are the ones that have earned the bye, and who have to win two fewer games than the other eight teams in the derby.
With that, USA TODAY Sports aims to break down the top eight World Series contenders as the postseason gets underway Sept. 30 with four wild card series:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
It’s been quiet, maybe too quiet around these guys for several weeks, save for some minor quibbles from Nick Castellanos. And it’s going to be a lot harder to do this without Zack Wheeler, who had a blood clot removed from his shoulder, preceding thoracic outlet surgery.
Yet they still represent the platonic ideal of a strong playoff team: Actual starting pitching, a lockdown closer with several relievers capable of “getting hot” in a postseason run and, of course, a lineup revolving around 56-homer man Kyle Schwarber. The dangerous Trea Turner is back. The Dodgers are an unfortunate potential NLDS draw, but hey, might be easier to dethrone them in a best-of-five than a best-of-seven. This feels like the Phillies’ time.
2. New York Yankees
Crazy to drop a wild-card team in the two slot, eh? Darn right it is. Yet the Yankees are freaking potent, no way about it. They ended the season on an eight-game winning streak and it only gets more impressive as the sample extends to 11-1, 14-3 and 25-8 over their last 33. Probably not a bad thing they’ll just keep playing into the wild card. It will be tough to burn lefty bulwarks Max Fried and Carlos Rodón against Boston, but should they advance, Fried would be on turn for a Game 2 at Toronto. Ben Rice’s emergence – he had a .943 OPS and 10 homers over his final 10 games – only makes it harder to gameplan around Aaron Judge and a locked-in Giancarlo Stanton.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll go ahead and say it: The Phillies-Dodgers NLDS might be a de facto World Series in the same way the Padres-Dodgers squabble was a year ago. It’s just kind of wild how the Dodgers were a high-priced mess all year and then you look up in late September and there’s Yoshinobu Yamamaoto pitching like an ace, Blake Snell punching out guys, Tyler Glasnow being upright and Shohei Ohtani completing six innings and breaking the club record with 55 home runs. Yes, they’re a problem again. But a quarter-century of evidence shows us how hard it is to repeat – especially with a wild-card series out of the chute.
4. Seattle Mariners
By far the “best draw” in the field, though they earned it with the AL’s second-best record. From there, the vagaries of MLB’s seeding provides a big boost. (In short: Ask the No. 1-seeded Blue Jays if they’d like to face the Yankees-Red Sox survivor or the Guardians-Tigers winner). The big questions: Which of their very good pitchers steps forward as a Playoff Dude? (And does Bryan Woo have enough in the tank to fill that role?) Can a team that strikes out a fair amount avoid swing-and-miss ruts that can short-circuit a playoff appearance? They’re a strong bet to reach the ALCS, but their depth will be tested in the best-of-seven portion of the proceedings.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
They’re back, for the seventh time in eight years, with ostensibly their best team yet – if snagging the No. 1 seed is your metric for such things. No team will be more fascinating, as the Brewers haven’t advanced a round in their past five playoff trips, yet will now avoid the nettlesome wild-card round. Things aren’t necessarily optimal: Closer Trevor Megill just returned from injury and lefty Jose Quintana (calf) might return by Game 3 of the NLDS. Jacob Misiorowski is headed to the bullpen. The bottom half of the order – Andrew Vaughn, Jake Bauers, Caleb Durbin and Joey Ortiz – is sneaky-good but can be pitched to in a playoff setting. Only the Padres have hit fewer home runs among NL playoff teams, so the Brewers will have to stay opportunistic.
6. Toronto Blue Jays
Even after losing shortstop Bo Bichette – in the midst of a season that was MVP-worthy – the vibes are really good in Ontario. They went 12-7 since Bichette went down to hold the division via tiebreaker. The bigger concern now might be the pitching staff: Blue Jays starters yielded a 4.04 ERA and 5.06 expected ERA in September. Little wonder they will likely pencil recently-recalled rookie Trey Yesavage into the playoff rotation. One X factor: George Springer had a resurgent year, finishing third in the majors with a .959 OPS and he also hit 32 home runs. The return of Playoff George, a fellow known well in Houston, could change Toronto’s calculus.
7. Chicago Cubs
What looked like a rock-solid club a few months ago is now one of its most befuddling. The Cubs are still dangerous, but key parts are in doubt. Rookie pitcher Cade Horton is out for the wild card series with a rib fracture. Lineup aircraft carrier Kyle Tucker played in just two games since returning from a calf problem. It’s an aesthetically pleasing ballclub, yet one that seems quite susceptible to trouble in a shorter series. Here’s hoping they advance one round simply to give Lake Michigan its proper due in a Brewers-Cubs NLDS.
8. Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal appreciation post, mostly. Perhaps the Tigers are as dead in the water as their 9-22 finish to the season would indicate. But with Skubal, there’s always a chance, and after a grim second half, Javy Báez sprang to life in the final series of the year to save Detroit’s season. Vital signs are grim, yet the Tigers seem the likeliest to make a run through a round or two that seemed highly implausible.
Also:
Drawing the Dodgers and then the Phillies as a treat for surviving the wild card series is just too much to ask for the Reds … Beyond Game 1 starter Nick Pivetta, there’s way too many question marks around the Padres’ starting pitching to feel confident about their long-term viability. … A Tigers-Mariners draw seems favorable for the Guardians to do their whole Guards Ball thing, but a team that finished last in the AL in OPS will eventually get outscored. … The Red Sox have a nice playoff rotation fronted by Garrett Crochet and Lucas Giolito, but a lineup that ranks 22nd in the majors in weighted runs created plus (88) since Roman Anthony’s Sept. 3 oblique injury likely won’t slug its way out of the AL.