A down Longhorns team that entered 2025 as one of the most hyped teams in the season lost its luster after losses to Ohio State and Florida in the early part of the season has awakened over the past five quarters, storming back to beat Mississippi State on Oct. 25 and dominating Vanderbilt for 56 minutes before struggling to a 34-31 win after giving up 21 unanswered points.
Arch Manning had his best game as a Longhorn against the No. 11 Commodores, throwing for 328 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. As such, the Longhorns have suddenly reinserted themselves as CFP contenders for the third year in a row.
The win moves Texas to 7-2 (4-1 SEC) and gives it the tiebreaker over the Commodores. While there are too many moving pieces to know exactly where Texas stands at this point in the year, there’s one objective fact: Texas may be a classic example of a team clicking at the right time.
When do CFP rankings release?
The first CFP rankings release Nov. 4 at 8 p.m. CT. As such, that will be the truest test of where Texas is at.
That does not, however, mean it’s impossible to estimate. The Longhorns were Nos. 19 and 20 in last week’s Coaches and AP polls, respectively. Ahead of them are the likes of Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt itself.
Oklahoma and Tennessee play each in a classic case of mutually assured destruction, and while Texas might not jump Vanderbilt due to the dramatic gap between the two, it should be closed a bit.
Ultimately, with games against Georgia, Arkansas, and Texas A&M, the path for the Longhorns is exceptionally difficult. If they win out, it would be difficult to impossible to keep them out. If they win two of three, they’re firmly on bubble watch.
Texas football remaining schedule
All times CT
Aug. 30: Lost to Ohio State, 14-7
Sept. 6: Won against San Jose State, 38-7
Sept 13: Won against UTEP, 27-10
Sept. 20: Won against Sam Houston, 55-0
Oct. 4: Lost to Florida, 21-29
Oct. 11: Won against Oklahoma, 23-6
Oct. 18: Won against Kentucky, 16-13
Oct. 25: Won against Mississippi State, 45-38
Nov. 1: Won against Vanderbilt, 34-24
Nov. 15 at Georgia: TBD
Nov. 22 vs Arkansas: TBD
Nov. 28 vs Texas A&M: 6:30 p.m.
Biggest obstacles to Texas CFP case
Texas’ second-biggest obstacle to overcome is going to be its slow start. While losing to Ohio State in Week 1 ultimately ends up being a wash, a loss to a Florida team that went on to fire its coach is a hard one to overcome perception-wise.
Texas dropped precipitiously, and though it manhandled Oklahoma, the Sooners were shorthanded with an injury-effected John Mateer and the loss to the Gators kept a stigma over the Longhorns. Incredibly close shaves against Kentucky and Mississippi State hardly bolster Texas’ argument, but a statement win over Vanderbilt — a college football darling this season — is a boon.
Even so, the bigger obstacle is what lies ahead: Texas’ actual schedule. A road game in Athens and hosting a tough Texas A&M team, with a punji pit game against Arkansas lying in wait in between, is nothing to scoff at. If Texas wins out, the resume will be there. It will depend on who is around it in the standings.
Texas College Football Playoff chances bottomline
It feels crazy to say with how it started the year, but in some way Texas holds the keys to its playoff path. If it wins out, the committee will look favorably upon a team winning two of its past three games against top-10 and possibly top-5 opponents. While the SEC itself is going to be exceptionally difficult to take, Texas has a good look as an at-large team.