Regional Banks (KRE) made a comeback during the session. The price pierced the 44 resistance level and closed above the last 18 trading day’s range.

On March 6th, over a month ago, I wrote a Daily called “Retail and Regional Banks Will Call the Shots“. At the time, KRE was trading at $60 and predates the short-lived banking crisis, but not by much. That began happening on March 7th.

Now, with lots of bank earnings out of the way, and a rally in KRE, once again, the Fed could have bad timing. On April 12, according to Fed documents, “fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year.” Maybe.

But maybe, with KRE holding and that potential bottoming pattern emerging, and with the indices rallying, that feels great for now, but comes back to bite later.

For now, let’s focus on the chart.

Momentum, according to our Real Motion, stays sideways with a slight uptick. Plus, the red dots or momentum tracker is way closer to the overhead moving averages than the price is to its MAs. Momentum must continue to improve. Should that clear the MAs, then we would expect KRE’s price to go up closer to 50. That most likely will mean the SPY runs over the 420 level.

The 23-month moving average (see video below on my topic at the money show), shows potential business cycle expansion, and everyone jumps back in the pool. Awesome, right?

Projecting ahead–KRE has a long way to go to get back over the huge crash from the weeks of March 6 and March 13th. However, this is a catch while you can market.

So for now, our Prodigal Son caught another break.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish discusses what she’ll be talking about at The Money Show, from April 24-26!

Mish walks you through technical analysis of TSLA and market conditions and presents an action plan on CMC Markets.

Mish presents two stocks to look at in this appearance on Business First AM — one bullish, one bearish.

Mish joins David Keller on the Thursday, May 13 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, where she shares her charts of high yield bonds, semiconductors, gold, and regional banks.

Mish joins Wolf Financial for this Twitter Spaces event, where she and others discuss their experiences as former pit traders.

Mish shares her views on natural gas, crude oil and a selection of ETFs in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish talks what’s next for the economy on Yahoo! Finance.

Mish joins Bob Lang of Explosive Options for a special webinar on what traders can expect in 2023!

Rosanna Prestia of The RO Show chats with Mish about commodities, macro and markets.

Mish and Charles Payne rip through lots of stock picks in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Coming Up:

April 19th: Closing Bell on Cheddar TV

April 20th: Benzinga Pre-Market Prep

April 24-26th: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas — two presentations and a book giveaway

April 28th: Live Coaching Complete Trader and TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides

May 2nd-5th: StockCharts TV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): Tight range to watch this week, 412-415.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support, 180 resistance.Dow (DIA): Over the 23-month MA 336–impressive if holds.Nasdaq (QQQ): 312 support, over 320 better.Regional Banks (KRE): 44 now pivotal.Semiconductors (SMH): 258 resistance with support at 248.Transportation (IYT): Timely.Biotechnology (IBB): 130 major pivotal area, 135 resistance.Retail (XRT): 58-64 trading range to break one way or another.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education