One of the surest signs that a new baseball season has begun is the avalanche of conclusions already being made on the smallest of sample sizes.

That’s why we present our annual Tuffy Awards: To pay tribute to the little-known players who create incredibly high expectations by starting the season scorching hot, but ultimately return to their near-replacement level of production.

The inspiration for the award did just that 29 years ago. On opening day in 1994, Chicago Cubs outfielder Karl ‘Tuffy’ Rhodes hit three home runs off Dwight Gooden and sent fantasy baseball managers rushing to the waiver wire to pick him up.

Those who succeeded were rewarded with exactly five more homers and a .234 average the rest of the way.

Could history repeat itself? We’ve already seen a three-homer game from an unlikely slugger this season, so another Tuffy may be in our midst.

2023 MLB SEASON UNDERWAY: Eight numbers that matter in the early going

TOP PROSPECTS: 100 Names You Need To Know for this MLB season

Non-Tuffys

While these awards call attention to overinflated expectations, they can also help identify a few players who just might be worth an early investment.

DH Mitch Garver, Texas Rangers. Garver missed most of last season with a forearm injury, one that allowed him to make just 14 starts behind the plate.

Although he didn’t have a great spring, Garver’s healthy now – as evidenced by a two-homer, six-RBI game April 1 in his first regular-season action since last July. Even more encouraging, he caught all nine innings.

If you have the roster space and can wait until he gains in-season catcher eligibility, Garver can be a sneaky weapon at a thin position.

OF Jose Siri, Tampa Bay Rays. Siri has always been known as a fast runner and an excellent fielder. But perhaps there’s something more to his profile.

Siri, 27, did hit 16 homers and steal 24 bases at Class AAA in 2021 – and he’s off to a nice start as the Rays’ everyday center fielder, with a homer, five RBI and a steal in his first three games.

Unless he starts elevating the ball more, his ability to hit the ball hard (he’s already recorded a 110 mph exit velocity this season) isn’t going to pay off with very many homers. However, regular playing time, MLB’s new rules and his elite sprint speed should make him quite valuable on the base paths.

RP Pierce Johnson, Colorado Rockies. Just a couple of years ago, Daniel Bard came out of relative obscurity to take over the closer’s job in a hitter-friendly ballpark and actually find success.

With Bard out for an indefinite amount of time, the Rockies turned to the 31-year-old Johnson in their first save opportunity. And he converted it with ease. Johnson gets whiffs (10.7 career K/9 rate) and has historically been at his best in high-leverage situations. He could be a nice stopgap until Bard is ready to return.

Almost-Tuffys

On the other hand, we have a few Tuffy contenders who should be viewed with a healthy amount of skepticism.

SP Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies. The Rockies surprisingly opened the season with two wins over the San Diego Padres. Freeland played a major role in the second game, tossing six scoreless innings and allowing only three hits.

However, he only struck out one batter and the game wasn’t played in Colorado’s mile-high altitude, where Freeland will spend half the season.

3B Gio Urshela, Los Angeles Angels. Urshela opened the season with two starts at shortstop and one at third base, collecting five hits and scoring three runs. But don’t read too much into his performance against the lowly Oakland Athletics.

Though he makes consistent contact, Urshela doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. And his defense at short isn’t good enough to keep him in the lineup consistently.

OF Victor Robles, Washington Nationals. Still trying to find the magic that resulted in 17 homers and 28 steals in 2019, Robles had a pair of hits and – more impressively – three walks in his first two games.

He’s had past issues with plate discipline (104/17 K/BB last season), so the walks are a good sign. But Robles hits the ball as soft as anyone in the majors (1st percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate) – and that’s not going to change just because it’s a new season.

1B Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins. Cooper went 5-for-13 in three games with a home run, a triple and a 1.154 OPS. However, those totals also included four strikeouts and no walks. Plus, the triple could easily have been ruled an error.

Though Cooper is a solid veteran hitter, he could just as easily be replaced by Yuli Gurriel – or squeezed out of a lineup spot in favor of Luis Arraez if the Jazz Chisholm-in-center field experiment doesn’t work out.

And the 2023 Tuffy Award goes to …

OF Trayce Thompson, Los Angeles Dodgers. The younger brother of NBA star Klay Thompson made a splash of his own April 1 in his regular-season debut.

After sitting out the Dodgers’ first two games, Thompson promptly launched a grand slam off Diamondbacks left-hander Madison Bumgarner in his first at-bat. He connected again in the sixth and, for good measure, added a solo shot in the eighth to complete the Tuffy Triplet.

Thompson finished with eight RBI, becoming just the eighth player in Dodgers history to record eight or more in one game.

Though he only had 255 plate appearances last season, Thompson hit righties (1.010 OPS) much better than he did lefties (.621 OPS). However, lefty-swinging rookie James Outman also homered on opening day as the starter in center field.

Thompson, 32, has displayed both power and speed throughout his minor league career, but – until last year – enjoyed limited success in the majors. His impressive 2022 numbers (13 HRs, 41 RBI, .507 slugging in 80 games) came with a .374 average on balls in play and despite a mere 57.5% contact rate.

Thompson is a great story, but Outman is seven years younger, has been an on-base machine in the minors and is likely to play most of the time against right-handed pitchers. Thompson could see time in left field, but like Outman, incumbent David Peralta also hits left-handed.

If his bat stays hot, the Dodgers will have to find a place for Thompson in the lineup.

But three-homer games are an anomaly, and over the long haul, his most likely path to playing time will be on the short side of a platoon.

Follow Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner